Analysis: South Dakota sees increased COVID-19 rates like other northern US states

After falling for several weeks, the rate of new COVID-19 cases in South Dakota is rising again, leading to other troubling metrics.

As of Friday, the state was averaging nearly 360 new infections a day during the past seven days. Just two weeks ago, the state was averaging about 300 new cases.

The Argus Leader's regular, in-depth review of the state's COVID-19 data finds that active COVID-19 cases have increased in six out of the last seven days, and since Oct. 28, active infections increased by 464, ending at 5,857.

New case growth has corresponded to an increase in deaths. As of Friday, the state was reporting 4.6 deaths a day over the past week. That's near the high of five deaths per day during the Delta variant surge. Prior to that surge, which started in July, the state hadn't been averaging that many deaths from COVID-19 since mid-February.

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A national look reveals how regional the pandemic has been. While the south got hit hard earlier in the latest surge, it's now the north's turn. South Dakota had the 14th highest rate of new cases in the country, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported Friday, and the state was flanked by Nebraska and Wisconsin – the 15th and 13th respectively.

Alaska leads the country in new cases, but it is followed by Montana, North Dakota and Wyoming. Minnesota was seventh in new cases.

So that's the bad news. The question now is whether these new cases are the jumping off point for another severe winter surge, or whether they are just another bump in an extremely bumpy road.

That answer could be a week or two away.

While the COVID-19 situation isn't improving, it's still far from where it was a year ago. On Nov. 5, 2020, the state was averaging 1,164 new infections a day and more than 11 deaths a day. On the 1,360 new cases reported that day, 317 of them were among people 60 or older.  

Hospitalizations were more than double there current level, and there were 13,610 active infections.

As unfortunate as the situation is today, it's been worse.