CORONAVIRUS

Analysis: Collier's reported COVID-19 cases, deaths drop in March as vaccines surge

Naples Daily News

Reported COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths in Collier County declined during March as the number of residents who received vaccinations nearly doubled.

However, a University of Florida epidemiologist said a rise in cases in the final two weeks of the month could be the initial sign of a surge fueled by Spring Break vacations and the continued rise of infections by coronavirus variant strains.

Overall, however, cases showed a marked decline in March as compared to February's numbers.

February analysis:Collier's reported COVID deaths, hospitalizations, cases tumbled

January analysis:Reported deaths, hospitalizations in Collier set pandemic highs

According to a Naples Daily News analysis of data compiled by the Florida Department of Health, Collier averaged 72 new COVID-19 cases per day in March, 18% fewer than February's average of 88. In total, Collier reported 2,233 COVID-19 cases last month, less than February's monthly tally of 2,473 and nearly 58% fewer than January's total of more than 5,300 cases. It’s also the fewest cases in a month for the county since October’s 1,836.

Florida saw a more significant decrease in cases in March, averaging about 4,970 per day. That’s 26% fewer than the state’s daily average of 6,709 during February.

However, over the final two weeks of March, Collier's seven-day average case rate jumped 43% from 61 on March 15 to 87 on March 31. The rate is the average of a day and the previous six days of reported COVID-19 cases.

Florida also saw a rise in its average case rate during the same span, from 4,475 on March 15 to 5,154 on March 31, a 15% increase.

"We're seeing some things that are concerning," said Dr. Cindy Prins, a University of Florida epidemiologist. "Cases are going up, the percent positivity rate is going up but testing isn't increasing that much."

Those increases haven't yet turned into a rise in hospitalizations. In fact, Collier County’s seven-day hospitalization rate steadily dropped during March, according to data from Florida’s Agency for Health Care Administration. The rate, which is the average of a day and the previous six days of COVID-19 hospitalizations, declined 47% from 58 patients on March 1 to 31 on March 31.

Prins said that since the pandemic began, new hospitalizations have typically trailed new cases by about two weeks or so but that vaccinations could limit serious COVID-19 complications moving forward.

"Statewide, we've got a lot of the more vulnerable older populations vaccinated," she said. "Hopefully with a lot of those folks covered, we won't see a big increase in hospitalizations."

Through March, just over 100,000 Collier County residents age 65 and older had received at least one vaccine dose. That's about 79% of the total senior population in the county.

Statewide, about 74% of seniors have received at least one vaccine dose through March.

Overall in Collier County, more than 52,000 people were vaccinated in March, the highest monthly total to date and 22% more than the approximately 43,000 vaccinated during February.

Reported COVID-19 deaths of Collier residents declined for the second consecutive month, dropping to 39 in March compared to 55 in February. On average, the state reported about 0.7 fewer COVID-19 deaths per day in Collier County last month than it did in February and 1.1 fewer per day than January.

March also marked the lowest number of reported COVID-19 deaths of Collier residents since 24 were reported last November. January remains the deadliest month in Collier with 72 reported fatalities, followed by February.

Florida reported 2,573 deaths in March, 41% fewer than February's 4,373. Medical and data experts have observed that only about half of the COVID-19 deaths reported by Florida on a given day include people who have died within the previous two weeks. The rest includes dates of deaths from two weeks to as much as two months prior. That means a significant percentage of the COVID-19 deaths reported in Florida last month actually occurred prior to March.

Florida does not report dates of death on a county level because of medical privacy concerns.

COVID-19 deaths:A look at who is dying from the coronavirus in SWFL

Cases related to variant strains continue rise

Despite the positive signs in COVID-19 measurements heading into April, Prins said the growing number of cases caused by variant strains of the virus in Florida is a cause for concern.

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Florida leads the nation with 2,422 cases associated with COVID-19 variants as of April 1. That's nearly double the 1,242 variant cases in Michigan, which is second-highest in the U.S.

The Florida Health Department does not provide data on variant cases by county on a regular basis but through March, Collier County had 50 confirmed cases associated with the B.1117 variant, which was first discovered in the United Kingdom. Collier had 56 variant cases in all as of March 31, compared with a total of six through February.

“This is one that is known to be more transmissible; in simpler terms, it’s easier to get infected,” said Prins of the B.117 variant. “If you’re doing activities that may be risky, because that variant has increased transmission, you’ll be more likely to get infected while doing that activity.”

Prins said it's fair to assume there are more variant cases in Florida than have been discovered because of the relatively low amount of genomic surveillance the U.S. does in comparison to other countries.

Coronavirus mutations in Florida mostly infect minorities; cases continue rising

Impact of Spring Break and Easter still unknown

While the impact of Spring Break and Easter activities on Florida's COVID-19 numbers won't be fully known until mid-April, Prins said it's unlikely the state will see the surge in hospitalizations and reported deaths that followed the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays.

“We’re going to be in a weird balance for a while where we’ll see this continued increase in cases while at the same time we’re getting more vaccines rolled out," she said. "We are still dealing with a variant that we know the vaccine is effective against. I feel pretty confident we should not have that same level of hospitalizations.”

Further, the fact that the state has opened COVID-19 vaccines to all adults 16 and older provides an opportunity to inoculate a younger demographic that's been shown to be more likely to contract the virus and spread it to others.

"But so much of it depends upon them taking the vaccine," Prins said. "We need a continued uptake and we need more people to continue to come around and accept the vaccine."

After Florida spring break, :coronavirus cases appear to surge in young Floridians

Growth of COVID-19 in Collier County

(All data is cumulative)

Total cases reported

March 31, 2020: 146
April 30: 596
May 31: 1,539
June 30: 4,225
July 31: 9,581
Aug. 31: 11,606
Sept. 30: 12,751
Oct. 31: 14,587
Nov. 30: 17,757
Dec. 31: 22,506
Jan. 31: 27,810
Feb. 28: 30,283
March 31: 32,516

Total deaths reported

March 31, 2020: 1
April 30: 19
May 31: 49
June 30: 74
July 31: 122
Aug. 31: 176
Sept. 30: 221
Oct. 31: 256
Nov. 30: 280
Dec. 31: 332
Jan. 31: 404
Feb. 28: 459
March 31: 498

Total hospitalizations reported

March 31, 2020: N/A
April 30: N/A
May 31: 202
June 30: 323
July 31: 654
Aug. 31: 841
Sept. 30: 910
Oct. 31: 998
Nov. 30: 1,117
Dec. 31: 1,260
Jan. 31: 1,433
Feb. 28: 1,531
March 31: 1,602

Total tests reported

March 31, 2020: 1,356
April 30: 5,497
May 31: 16,770
June 30: 33,777
July 31: 58,570
Aug. 31: 70,313
Sept. 30: 79,676
Oct. 31: 93,250
Nov. 30: 109,592
Dec. 31: 132,409
Jan. 31: 153,010
Feb. 28: 168,005
March 31: 184,126

Cumulative percent of people testing positive

March 31: 10.77%
April 30: 10.84%
May 31: 9.18%
June 30: 12.51%
July 31: 16.36%
Aug. 31: 16.51%
Sept. 30: 16%
Oct. 31: 15.64%
Nov. 30: 16.2%
Dec. 31: 17%
Jan. 31: 18.19%
Feb. 28: 18.03%
March 31: 17.66%

Source: Florida Department of Health

Connect with Dan DeLuca: @News-PressDan (Twitter), ddeluca@gannett.com.

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