Census undercount of minority groups may have cost Arizona 10th congressional seat

PHOENIX - New Census Bureau estimates suggest large-scale undercounting of minorities worsened by the COVID-19 pandemic may have cost Arizona an extra congressional seat and hundreds of millions of federal dollars that will go elsewhere over a decade.

Hispanics and Native Americans, especially those living on reservations, were undercounted by enough in the 2020 census that a more accurate count might have put Arizona in line for the 435th — and final — seat in the U.S. House of Representatives.  

The Census Bureau recently released its customary best guess at how much the decennial census miscounted the U.S. population. As expected, demographers believe minorities were significantly undercounted, while non-Hispanic Whites and Asians were slightly overcounted.

There is no official finding that Arizona, or any state, was undercounted by a known amount. But the new estimates offer strong evidence that Arizona was among the most adversely impacted politically and financially by a census viewed as the most challenging since World War II.

Arizona had one of nation's lowest response rates

Arizona failed to gain a congressional seat from the 2020 census, a demographic stunner that had not happened since the 1950 census for a state usually among the fastest-growing in the nation.

"It does have a practical and a political impact," said Kimball Brace, president of Election Data Services, a Virginia-based consulting firm that analyzes census and political data.

"It means you're having one less voice in Congress pushing Arizona's issues and concerns, so it is a practical impact. It also means a little bit less money from the federal government allocated on the basis of population."

Gabriel Sanchez, a political science professor at the University of New Mexico and a fellow at the Brookings Institution, said because Arizona's undercount involves minorities, it probably cost Democrats a House seat they would have been favored to win and probably affected their prospects in the state Legislature as well.

"That's pretty substantial," he said.

Arizona invested little to boost census participation, and it had one of the lowest response rates in the country. That meant the Census Bureau had to work harder in Arizona to fill in the known holes in the population count.  

Pandemic hurt census counts

The 2020 census was tied to the population as it stood on April 1, 2020. It fell in the first weeks of the pandemic and the door-to-door effort to boost response rates came throughout the early months of quarantine.

"This was a totally different circumstance this time," Brace said. "It posed additional hardships on the bureau and on the population. Everything shut down right around the time that the census was supposed to take place." 

In that period, tribal areas like the Navajo Nation were among the hardest hit by COVID-19 in America. Pushing census participation took a back seat to saving lives.

Jonathan Nez, president of the Navajo Nation, could not be reached for comment. During the depths of the pandemic, he ordered weekend-long curfews in the community as part of measures intended to slow the spread of the disease. 

Many tribes barred non-tribal members from having access to their land during the worst periods of the pandemic, Sanchez said. 

Counting people, not citizens

Even before that, then-President Donald Trump stirred legal battles and raised anxiety in some corners over his effort to add a citizenship question to the census and a desire to assign seats in the House without counting undocumented immigrants.

The constitutionally mandated census only counts people, not citizens.

The census ultimately didn’t ask about citizenship and House seats were tied to overall population as usual, but the issue still suppressed response rates from those fearful of scrutiny of their legal status.

"Everybody knew there would be huge implications for a Latino undercount because of the Trump administration's goal to try and put a citizenship status on the census," said Sanchez, who is part of Latino Decisions, a polling firm focused on the Latino electorate. 

Analysis finds seat may have been lost

The Arizona Republic adjusted population figures for each state based on the estimated differences the bureau reported for broad racial and ethnic groups, then recalculated the apportionment of House seats.

The result is that Arizona would have been tantalizingly close to snatching a 10th congressional seat, The Republic's analysis found.

In one scenario that adjusts for an especially big undercount of minorities, Arizona would have gotten the final House seat by about 400 people, The Republic found. Minnesota would have lost one of its eight seats in that scenario.

In another scenario that adjusts for a smaller miscount, Arizona would have fallen about 1,000 people short of the final House seat. Minnesota would have lost a seat in that scenario, too, but it would have gone to Texas.    

Officially, the state had 7.15 million residents and fell about 80,000 residents short of the final House seat. Four other states were closer to the last seat than Arizona under the complex formula used to assign seats. 

Every state was affected to some extent by the various undercounting and overcounting, but Arizona's unique demographic mix and population total always meant it would be especially affected by the official numbers used by the Census Bureau.

Hispanics and Native Americans account for 34% of Arizona’s population, according to the official census figures. But both groups are historically undercounted, and in 2020, with the pandemic in its early stages, they were especially so, the bureau reported.

The Census Bureau reported that Hispanics were undercounted by 4.99 percent, more than triple the estimated undercount of that group from the 2010 census. 

Blacks were undercounted by 3.3% and Native Americans were undercounted by 0.91%. The tribal undercount was far steeper for those living on reservations: 5.64%.

By contrast, Whites were overcounted by 0.66% and Asians were overcounted by 2.62%.

The census allows people to identify themselves as part of one or more racial groups, such as White, Black or Asian. Nationally, 95% of residents identified as members of just one race. Just 0.3% identified as more than two races. 

Adjusting the population counts using the agency’s estimated undercounts and overcounts, Arizona would have netted at least 143,000 extra residents. 

Only California, New York, Oklahoma and Texas would gain more residents than Arizona. At least 20 states would have smaller populations, depending on how large the miscount was.

Hispanics account for the largest portion of Arizona's undercounted population, about 109,000.

Adjusting the Native American population to account for those living on reservations, those living off reservations in tribal areas and those who live elsewhere would give Arizona another 95,000 residents.

The number of White, non-Hispanic residents, the largest demographic group in the state, would likely drop by 62,000. Other racial groups, including those who are multiracial, would have little effect on the state's final count.

NY, California delegations shrink

Whatever the true numbers, every state's representation on Capitol Hill and its share of federal spending is tied to the figures the Census Bureau could reliably use.

Last year, New York missed out on the final seat in the House by a scant 89 people. It means that state’s House total will drop from 27 to 26 seats starting with the 2022 elections.

California's congressional delegation shrank for the first time in that state's history, and it happened despite pouring at least $100 million into boosting census participation.

Forced to draw new political boundaries that include only nine House seats instead of 10, the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission settled on a map that includes four safely Republican seats, three safely Democratic ones and two that are considered competitive.

Erika Schupak Neuberg, the commission chair, said the extra seat and extra people would have changed their work, but it is too speculative to say what would have happened instead.

"It definitely would have affected the maps, it's just hard to know exactly how. I think the honest answer is there are too many unknown variables. The question isn't just the number of Hispanics or Native Americans. The question is exactly where do they live and who are their neighbors?"

One consideration, for example, would be whether the minority population changed enough to create another congressional or legislative district dominated by that group, Neuberg said.

Apart from representation in Congress, the census is also a major factor in the allotment of about $1.5 trillion in annual, population-based federal funding.

Experts roughly pencil it out to $200,000 over a decade for each uncounted person, Sanchez said. Native Americans are not just undercounted, they are often most in need of federal aid they won't receive, he said.

"You're talking about the undercount being highest on or near the reservations," Sanchez said. "Those are some of the most impoverished areas in the country that really need those funds more desperately than ever given that those communities the most during COVID."   

While the Census Bureau tries to determine those it missed counting, the government does not adjust the decennial population figures using that information. 

Republic reporter Geoff Hing contributed to this report.

Reach the reporter Ronald J. Hansen at ronald.hansen@arizonarepublic.com or 602-444-4493. Follow him on Twitter @ronaldjhansen.