Man setting himself on fire is shocking. But that Floridians believe conspiracies is unsurprising

That a St. Augustine resident set himself ablaze outside the Manhattan courthouse where Donald Trump is on trial was shocking. But that the individual, Max Azzarello, turned out to be a Floridian who appeared to believe conspiracy theories, as police and media reports said, is far less surprising.

A study released in March cited the state as tops in the country for conspiracy theorists and believers. The report by Oddspedia, a sports-betting and data-tools website, listed Florida as America's No. 1 conspiracy theory "hot spot," while the Sunshine State's residents "ranked as the second-most gullible." Florida also landed as fifth-most skeptical, as in questioning or doubting accepted ideas, beliefs or claims.

Given the tensions and passions around the 2024 presidential election and the former president's court proceedings, conspiracy theorizing in Florida is in overdrive. But a spokesperson for Oddspedia said the analytics review reveals more deep-seated reasons.

"Florida's status as the No. 1 state for conspiracy theorists can be attributed to not just its politics, though that obviously plays a pivotal role," said Shing Mon Chung in answering questions about the study via an email.

The state's "significant income and social disparities," she said, "can lead to disenfranchisement, creating fertile grounds for conspiracy theories to take root." Other factors, like the consumption of disinformation through social-media channels, are more universal.

Conspiracy theorizing is multipartisan but embraced more by Republicans

The Oddspedia research unearthed a complicated reality about those who voice seemingly outlandish theories: They are found in all political corners.

The survey noted that while just over a third of Republicans (35%) surveyed expressed "significant or moderate belief" in unproven theories, so did 20% of those not registered with a party and 14% of Democrats. Conspiracy theorizing is arguably a national pastime with 4-in-5 Americans acknowledging at least some belief in them.

In the Oddspedia report, a seemingly equal mix of red and blue states lined up right behind Florida with California, Texas, Alabama, and New York rounding out the top five.

Support for political figures with unconventional views also defied easy explanation.

Presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has been mostly associated with the left wing of the Democratic Party throughout his political career, is largely known in political circles for espousing anti-vaccination beliefs and skepticism. A poll by Florida Atlantic University and Mainstreet Research released April 18 found RFK Jr. with 7% of support in crimson Florida.

Rank-and-file voters also belie stereotypes.

Wearing a T-shirt bearing Abraham Lincoln's face at a Trump speech in West Palm Beach last Oct. 11, Gregg Smyth offered an intriguing reason to explain his own political trajectory from a Democrat who embraced John F. Kennedy's presidential legacy to the Make America Great Again movement.

Smyth said JFK's father, Joseph P. Kennedy, was a great-grandson of Lincoln, contrary to all public and known genealogical research.

"That's the lineage," said the Palm Beach County resident. "It all started with Abe Lincoln. He freed the slaves. Trump is freeing the children."

Conspiracy theories about government top list

Fodder for conspiracy theories comes from all corners, but the Oddspedia study honed in on five topics in particular. The most widely cited ones, the survey said, revolved around purported government cover-ups and covert operations, with President Joe Biden's home state of Delaware a focal point.

Chung said historical episodes, such as the Watergate scandal, the CIA assassination plots revealed in 1970s congressional investigations and even the Ronald Reagan-era Iran-Contra affair "exposed genuine cases" in which the U.S. government "engaged in secretive or unethical," as well as illegal, practices.

Today, Chung added that trust in government and institutions has fallen due to high-profile scandals and instances of perceived government misconduct.

She cited a Pew Research Center study showing faith in the "political system is at record lows, with 65% of respondents admitting they often or always feel exhausted when thinking about politics." This erosion of trust, she said, makes people more vulnerable to conspiracy theories as they become increasingly doubtful of official narratives and question government motives.

"These episodes provided undeniable evidence that government officials could, and sometimes did, conspire in secrecy, stoking public skepticism," she said. "When people see verified conspiracies, they become more prone to believing that other conspiracies might be true as well."

The Trump effect on conspiracy theories

The report didn't pin the spiral in conspiracy theories on adopted Florida political son, Trump. But it included a discussion on the presumptive 2024 Republican presidential nominee.

Oddspedia noted Trump "has a well-documented history with conspiracy theories" dating to the so-called birther movement, based on the unfounded allegation that then-President Barack Obama was not a natural-born citizen and sought to cast doubt on his Hawaii-issued birth certificate. Critics have also pointed out Trump has lent support, if not provided a megaphone, to all sorts of political actors espousing various conspiracies.

Currently, Trump is railing that the criminal case against him in New York, as well as those in Georgia, Florida and Washington D.C., have been plotted by President Biden saying on social media that "it's all about Election interference. Sad!"

Trump has also been the main proponent of the unproven claims the 2020 presidential election was rife with massive fraud, an accusation that is still powerfully gripped by his MAGA movement and many within the Republican Party.

This year, conservative media and right-wing voices also touted purported political machinations between Biden's campaign, megastar Taylor Swift and the pop singer's relationship with Kansas City Chiefs player, Travis Kelce, before Super Bowl LVIII, which the Chiefs won. The allegations included one that Swift was a secret "psyop," a psychological operative, for the U.S. Defense Department.

Oddspedia noted how Biden mocked the wild speculation on social media with a post-Super Bowl comment on X, formerly Twitter, reading: “Just like we drew up.”

Taylor Swift theories fuel banter. Election theft 'lies' far more damaging.

Hand-wringing over Taylor Swift conspiracies is fodder for banter, but the attacks on the country's electoral systems, voting experts say, is serious and dangerous.

David Becker, executive director at the Center for Elections Innovation and Research, has argued that Trump's baseless claims of election fraud hover over the 2024 election year.

"Those false beliefs remain. They're strong," he said in an interview this year. "And we're going to have to continue to push back against them with correct information. But we also have to be ready for the strong possibility the losing candidate in 2024 will claim election fraud."

Becker noted that for all of Trump's hyperbole and outrage over the past three years, there "still has not been a single shred of evidence presented to a court and subjected to scrutiny and cross-examination" to justify even a modicum of theft.

Nonetheless, he said the unfounded claims of massive fraud in the 2020 presidential election has left an ugly and damaging legacy.

"The damage those lies have done is deep. It's pervasive," he said. "It's been resilient to the truth over the course of these last three years."

Antonio Fins is a politics and business editor at The Palm Beach Post, part of the USA TODAY Florida Network. You can reach him at afins@pbpost.com. Help support our journalism. Subscribe today.